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Weekly Recap | October 14, 2024

Weekly Recap | October 14, 2024

October 14, 2024
Weekly Recap

October 7-October 11, 2024 

Fifth Weekly Gain for U.S. Stocks

Solid Start to Third Quarter Earnings Season
The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials climbed to fresh record highs last week, backed by gains in technology stocks and well received earnings data from the first batch of third quarter earnings reports from major banks. So far, just 24 S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results. FactSet's current earnings outlook calls for earnings growth slightly above 7% in the third quarter, up from their initial 4.4% earnings growth forecast established on September 30. In the latest inflation report, the consumer price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in September, unchanged from August, but slightly above the +0.1% forecast. In notable easing, the CPI component for shelter rose just 0.2% last month, down from a 0.5% August increase.

For the Week…
All three major U.S. indices climbed a fifth straight week. The S&P 500 rose 1.13% reaching its 45th record high of the year and closed above 5,800 for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.22%, finishing at another record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.13%, ending the week just 1.6% below its July 10 record high.

Consumer Sentiment Weakens
The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment index backpedaled to 68.9 from 70.1 in September, broadly below economists’ consensus forecast for an increase to 70.9. A rise in respondents’ year-ahead inflation expectations to 2.9% from 2.7% was the primary catalyst behind the pullback. Despite the monthly decline, consumer sentiment is still 8% higher from a year ago and almost 40% above its trough low reached in June 2022.

Weekly Sector Insights
Six of the 11 sector groups ended positive last week, led by Technology (+2.51%), Industrials (+2.11%), and Financials (+1.82%). Consumer Staples (+0.35%) rose the least while Utilities (-2.55%) and Communication Services (-1.28%) fell the most. On a year-to-date basis, Technology (+32.90%) returned to top the 2024 leaderboard, followed by Communication Services (+28.98%) and Utilities (+28.15%). Real Estate (+11.14%) is up the least this year.

Treasury Yields Climb
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ended Friday at 4.084%, up 0.11% for the week and up 0.35% over the past eight trading sessions. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.4% while gold futures gained 0.3% at $2,676/ounce. U.S. crude oil advanced 1.6% to $75.56/barrel, its fourth increase in the past five weeks.

The Latest from @CeteraIM

Annualized Consumer Inflation Slows

Small Business Confidence Inches Higher

Mortgage Rates Rebound

Economic Calendar

Monday, October 14
Columbus Day holiday, Bond Market Closed.

Tuesday, October 15
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday, October 16
Mortgage Activity, Export & Import Prices.

Thursday, October 17
Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Philly Fed Business Survey, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Homebuilder Confidence.

Friday, October 18
Housing Starts, Building Permits.

Consumer credit increased by a relatively modest $8.9 billion in August (+11.8B expected), with the pace of credit expansion slowing from July's $26.6 billion. In the first eight months of the year, consumer credit increased by the following amounts: 2021 ($276 billion), 2022 ($241 billion), 2023 ($87 billion), 2024 ($74 billion). Consumers have borrowed less as interest rates have risen.

This report is created by Cetera Investment Management LLC. For more insights and information from the team, follow @CeteraIM on X.

About Cetera® Investment Management
Cetera Investment Management LLC is an SEC registered investment adviser owned by Cetera Financial Group®. Cetera Investment Management provides market perspectives, portfolio guidance, model management, and other investment advice to its affiliated broker-dealers, dually registered broker-dealers and registered investment advisers.

About Cetera Financial Group
“Cetera Financial Group” refers to the network of independent retail firms encompassing, among others, Cetera Advisors LLC, Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, Cetera Investment Services LLC (marketed as Cetera Financial Institutions or Cetera Investors), and Cetera Financial Specialists LLC. All firms are members FINRA / SIPC. Located at 655 W. Broadway, 11th Floor, San Diego, CA  92101.

About Avantax
Avantax, Inc. (Avantax) is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aretec Group, Inc. (dba Cetera Holdings). Avantax is a unique community within Cetera Holdings. Avantax Investment Services, Inc., a subsidiary of Avantax, Member FINRA / SIPC. Located at 3200 Olympus Blvd, Suite 100, Dallas, TX, 75019. Avantax and Cetera Financial Group are under common ownership.

Disclosures
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All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Investors cannot directly invest in unmanaged indices. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and differences in accounting standards.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and differences in accounting standards.

A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Glossary

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. 

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. 

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings have a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years.

The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years. 

The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity.

The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index.

 The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

 The S&P GSCI Gold Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000.