Weekly Recap | October 12, 2026

Oct. 5 - Oct. 9, 2026

Markets Trade at All-Time High as Yields Stabilize

Fed’s Patience Calms Bond Market
With few major economic releases or corporate earnings reports, Middle East tensions returned to the spotlight. Reports that Middle East oil exports, excluding Iran, had recovered to prewar levels helped ease pressure on crude prices. Meanwhile, September’s Fed FOMC minutes pointed to another rate hike this year, though officials gave no indication of timing. As a result, yields stabilized, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ending the week lower after six consecutive weekly gains.

For the Week
Both the S&P 500 (+1.2%) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) reached new highs this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.0% but remained 4.6% below its all-time high. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.9%. Internationally, developed markets were down 0.5% while emerging markets ended the week flat.

Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
Five of the six indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating are higher than a year ago, signaling continued economic expansion. Growth is modest across most of these indicators, with inflation-adjusted consumer spending up 2.6%.

Weekly Sector Insights
Nine of the 11 sectors were up this week signaling a broad-based rally. Both Consumer Staples and Utilities were up 4.0% for the week. Industrials (-0.4%) and Information Technology (-0.3%) were marginally down this week.

Treasury Yields Rise
The yield on the 10-year Treasury notes fell from 5.28% to 5.24%. U.S. WTI crude oil rose 0.3%. Gold was up 1.3%.

The Week Ahead
Markets will closely watch CPI and PPI data, as softer inflation could further reduce the odds of an October rate hike. Retail sales will offer insight into consumer resilience amid elevated energy prices. Earnings season begins this week with major banks announcing results on Tuesday, followed by two key AI supply-chain companies whose results could provide insight into future semiconductor demand.

The Latest from @CeteraIM

Services PMI Signals Rising Price Pressure

Rising Borrowing Cost Impacts Housing Activity

Jobless Claims Continue to Remain Low

Economic Calendar

Monday, October 12
No Major Release.

Tuesday, October 13
Existing Home Sales, NFIB Small Business Optimism.

Wednesday, October 14
Mortgage Applications, Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Thursday, October 15
Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales, Business Inventories.

Friday, October 16
Export-Import Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization.

U.S. government debt is now above $40 trillion, but household balance sheets are in far better shape. Consumers have steadily deleveraged since the Great Financial Crisis, with household debt-to-GDP falling from a peak of 98% in 2008 to just 65% today.

^{This report is created by Cetera Investment Management LLC. For more insights and information from the team, follow @CeteraIM on X.}