Weekly Recap | June 15, 2026

Weekly Recap

June 8 - June 12, 2026 Historic Peace Deal in Sight Ceasefire Hopes Calm Volatile Markets While the week ended essentially flat, volatility remained elevated as the prior week’s selloff extended amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Sentiment improved later in the week after reports indicated both parties had agreed to a ceasefire framework. Wednesday’s CPI report offered some relief as shelter inflation moderated in May, though headline inflation continued to edge higher on elevated energy prices. Thursday’s PPI report reinforced signs of rising pipeline pressures, with higher energy costs gradually feeding into raw materials, transportation, and core goods prices. Meanwhile, declining trade margins in May suggest corporations may still be absorbing part of these costs, delaying a broader pass-through to consumers. Separately, Friday marked the launch of SpaceX, with the stock rallying 19.2%, implying an approximate $2.1 trillion valuation. For the Week… While volatility remained elevated, all 3 major U.S. indices—the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average—finished the week up 0.7%. The Russell 2000 continued to trend higher, gaining 3.9% for the week. Internationally, MSCI Developed Markets rose 1.0%, while Emerging Markets ended the week essentially flat. PPI Surges Past Street Expectations The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% in May, exceeding expectations of +0.7%. The annual rate climbed to a 42-month high of 6.5%. Final demand goods increased 2.8% month-over-month, the sharpest increase on record (since 2009), with energy as the primary driver. Weekly Sector Insights 9 of the 11 sectors ended the week higher, led by Materials (+3.0%) and Consumer Staples (+2.6%), Communication services (-1.9%) and Energy (-0.4%) edged lower. Treasury Yields Falls The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell from 4.54% to 4.49% for the week. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3%. U.S. WTI crude oil fell 7.4% as negotiations progressed between U.S. & Iran. Gold edged lower, falling 2.9%. The Week Ahead With the U.S. and Iran expected to sign an agreement on June 19, focus will remain on the progress of the peace agreement, with any renewed escalation posing a risk to recent gains. On the data front, retail sales are due Tuesday, followed by the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. While no change in policy is expected, markets will be closely watching the Fed’s forward guidance and updated projections.

The Latest from @CeteraIM

Home Sales Rise in May Economic Data Outpaces Expectations Small Business Optimism Falls as Hiring Plans Decline

Economic Calendar Monday, June 15  Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization. Tuesday, June 16 Housing Starts, Export-Import Prices. Wednesday June 17  Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Policy Decision. Thursday, June 18 Jobless Claims. Friday, June 19 Markets Closed – Juneteenth Holiday.

Headline CPI inflation rose 0.5% month-over-month in May, in line with expectations, while the annual rate of 4.2% was the highest in 3 years. Energy prices accounted for a large share of the overall increase. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations of +0.3%.

This report is created by Cetera Investment Management LLC. For more insights and information from the team, follow @CeteraIM on X.

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“Cetera Financial Group” (CFG) refers to the network of independent retail firms encompassing, among others, those that are members FINRA/SIPC; Cetera Advisors LLC, Cetera Wealth Services, LLC (f/k/a Cetera Advisor Networks), Cetera Investment Services LLC (marketed as Cetera Financial Institutions or Cetera Investors), and Cetera Financial Specialists LLC. Those that are Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment advisers; Cetera Investment Management LLC and Cetera Investment Advisers LLC, .CFG is located at 655 W. Broadway, 11th Floor, San Diego, CA 92101.

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Glossary

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. 

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. 

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings have a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years.

The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years. 

The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity.

The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index.

 The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

 The S&P GSCI Gold Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000.