Weekly Recap | July 20, 2026

Weekly Recap

July 13 - July 17, 2026 Strong Inflation Data Offsets Geopolitical Risks Choppy Week Ends in Sell-off as Iran War Intensifies Markets traded in a narrow range for much of the week before selling off on Friday as tensions with Iran escalated. While the  war remained in focus, softer-than-expected CPI and PPI reports, along with resilient retail sales, underscored the strength of the U.S. consumer. Earnings season has also started on a strong note, with roughly 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting results with expected Q2 earnings growth rising from 23.6% to 24.7%. For the Week… All major indices ended in red with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-2.9%) down the most. The S&P 500 was down -1.6% while Dow Jones Industrial Average ended -0.9% lower. The Russell 2000 also edged lower (-0.5%) as well. Internationally, MSCI Developed Markets (-0.8%) was lower and Emerging Markets were down -4.1%. CPI Eases on Lower Energy Prices Headline CPI declined 0.4% in June, falling more than expected (-0.1%). The annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5% Y/Y from 4.2%. Lower energy prices were a key driver. Core CPI was flat M/M, making a Fed rate hike this month less likely. Weekly Sector Insights Five of the 11 sectors ended the week higher, led by Energy (+5.0%) as higher crude oil prices act as a tailwind for the sector. Real Estate was up 2.3% and Consumer Staples were up 1.4%. Information Technology (-3.8%) and Communication Services (-2.4%) fell for the week. Treasury Yields Flat The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged marginally lower from 4.56% to 4.55% for the week. U.S. WTI crude oil rose 14.6% as ceasefire between US & Iran ended abruptly. Gold fell 1.8%. The Week Ahead The S&P 500 gained 15.2% in Q2 2026 as earnings and corporate guidance remained strong. Markets will now look for confirmation of that strength as earnings season accelerates. Any de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions could further support market sentiment.

The Latest from @CeteraIM

PPI Logs Largest Monthly Decline Since October 2023 Retail Sales Continues to Remain Strong Housing Starts Rebound in June

Economic Calendar Monday, July 20 No Major Release. Tuesday, July 21 No Major Release. Wednesday July 22 Mortgage Applications. Thursday, July 23 Jobless Claims. Friday, July 24 Building Permits, S&P US Manufacturing & Services PMI, New Home Sales.

Housing starts jumped 19% to a 1.43 million annualized pace in June, rebounding from a six-year low in May, driven by a 76% surge in multi-family construction. However, building permits, a key leading indicator for housing activity, fell to 1.37 million annualized, the third lowest reading of the past six years. The housing recovery remains uneven.

This report is created by Cetera Investment Management LLC. For more insights and information from the team, follow @CeteraIM on X.

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“Cetera Financial Group” (CFG) refers to the network of independent retail firms encompassing, among others, those that are members FINRA/SIPC; Cetera Advisors LLC, Cetera Wealth Services, LLC (f/k/a Cetera Advisor Networks), Cetera Investment Services LLC (marketed as Cetera Financial Institutions or Cetera Investors), and Cetera Financial Specialists LLC. Those that are Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment advisers; Cetera Investment Management LLC and Cetera Investment Advisers LLC, .CFG is located at 655 W. Broadway, 11th Floor, San Diego, CA 92101.

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Glossary

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. 

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. 

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings have a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years.

The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years. 

The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity.

The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index.

 The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

 The S&P GSCI Gold Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000.