Weekly Recap | April 14, 2025

Weekly Recap

April 7- April 11, 2025 Stocks Rebound Reciprocal Tariff Pivot Fuels Buying Bounce  U.S. stocks wrapped up an intensely volatile week in the plus column despite being whipsawed by a flurry of trade tariff developments. The CBOE VIX Volatility Index spiked above 50 on Tuesday before dropping back to 37 on Friday. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 sharply advanced over 9.5% after President Trump temporarily dropped reciprocal tariffs to 10% for 90-days for nations that had not retaliated and sought negotiated trade deals. The pause allows trade deal negotiations on over 75 nations. For the Week… The S&P 500 netted a 5.73% gain last week, following a 9.05% prior week plunge. The partial rebound narrows the correction pullback to 12.7% below its February 19 peak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.30% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained the least, up 4.97%.  Wholesale Inflation Falls  Price inflation also surprised lower on the wholesale side, as the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.4% in March (+0.2 forecast), bringing annualized wholesale inflation down to 2.7% from 3.2% in February. The core PPI (excluding food & energy) rose just 0.1% last month. Weekly Sector Insights All but two of the eleven major S&P 500 sectors finished positive last week, led by strong gains in Technology (+9.69%), Industrials (+6.54%), and Communication Services (+6.48%). Utilities (+2.41%) and Healthcare (+1.21%) gained the least while Energy (-0.39%) and Real Estate (-0.07%) posted small declines. In year-to-date (YTD) performance, however, only Consumer Staples (+4.39%) and Utilities (+1.61%) have pushed into positive territory. Consumer Discretionary (-16.85%) and Technology (-15.13%) are down the most this year while Financials (-3.01%) and Healthcare (-0.02%) are down the least. Treasury Yields Climb Treasury prices were sharply lower during the week with 10- and 30-year yields both rising more than 0.40%, The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ended Friday at 4.468%. The U.S. Dollar Index tumbled, posting its worst weekly decline since November 2022. Gold futures surged 6.89% to finish the week at a record $3,244.60/ounce. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.76%, ending Friday at $61.50/barrel.

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Sentiment Remains Bearish Stocks Soar on 90-Day Reciprocal Tariffs Pause CPI Inflation Declines

Economic Calendar Monday, April 14 No Major Releases. Tuesday, April 15 Empire State Manufacturing, Import/Export Prices.  Wednesday, April 16 Mortgage Activity, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Homebuilder Confidence. Thursday, April 17  Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing. Friday, April 18 Good Friday Holiday, Equity Markets Closed, Early Bond Markets Close at Noon ET.

The S&P 500 average daily trading range has widened to 5.0% through the first nine trading days this quarter. The S&P 500 declined more than 12% in the four trading days after “Liberation Day,” before strongly rallying off the lows on news of a 90-day pause and reduced tariffs for most countries excluding China. Market volatility is likely to persist until there is greater clarity on the future of tariffs.

This report is created by Cetera Investment Management LLC. For more insights and information from the team, follow @CeteraIM on X.

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Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and differences in accounting standards.

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Glossary

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. 

The S&P 500 is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping (among other factors) designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large cap universe.

The NASDAQ Composite Index includes all domestic and international based common type stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad based index.

The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.

The Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3,000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market.

The Russell Midcap Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000 Index. It includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. 

The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, which was originally called the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index, is a broad based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government–related and corporate debt securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency) debt securities that are rated at least Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P. Taxable municipals, including Build America bonds and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. markets are also included. Eligible bonds must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings have a fluctuating average life of around 8.25 years.

The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index measures the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. Payment-in-kind and bonds with predetermined step-up coupon provisions are also included. Eligible securities must have at least one year until final maturity, but in practice the index holdings has a fluctuating average life of around 6.3 years. 

The Bloomberg US Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds. Eligible securities must be rated investment grade (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by Moody’s and S&P and have at least one year until final maturity.

The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets (Europe, Australasia, Far East) excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Index is market-capitalization weighted.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in global emerging markets. It is a float-adjusted market capitalization index.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index that measures 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities in five groups (energy, agriculture, industrial metals, precious metals, and livestock), which are weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity. No single commodity can comprise less than 2% or more than 15% of the index; and no group can represent more than 33% of the index.

 The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the crude oil market.

 The S&P GSCI Gold Index, a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold futures market.

The U.S. Dollar Index is a weighted geometric mean that provides a value measure of the United States dollar relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. The index, often carrying a USDX or DXY moniker, started in March 1973, beginning with a value of the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.000.